Just a Thought

By Jonah Rosenblum

And now begins a new series of articles, which will be entitled “Just a Thought,” where I will throw a thought out there about politics, and hope it doesn’t fall too hard.

In his most recent speech before AIPAC, Senator and Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama told the crowd that the bond between Israel and the United States is and must remain “unbreakable.” Never mind that this completely violates George Washington’s warning about making tight political connections with other nations, since we abandoned that principle long ago. My question is what does it mean to have an “unbreakable bond”?

Today, I am calling on our presidential candidates, Senators John McCain and Barack Obama, to actually address what it means to be allied with Israel. Every election cycle, the presidential candidates assert their support for Israel over and over again, in an attempt to win over the Jewish vote. Yet, this election, as fanciful as this may be, I’d like to see them do more than just pay lip service to Israel. This year, I’d like to see them explain what they believe is actually in Israel’s best interest. I’d like to see them talk about Hamas, the settlements, and Annapolis. In other words, I’d like to see them focus on the actual issues.

And I would like them to bear in mind that being Israel’s best friend might be more complex than simply standing by and saying yes to everything Israel chooses to do.

A Sad Goodbye to Tim Russert

By Jonah Rosenblum

Today, while working on another episode of his show “Meet the Press”, Tim Russert died of an apparent heart attack. He was only 58. Russert was most known for his role hosting “Meet the Press,” but he was on television many other times as well to offer political commentary, and was also frequently called upon to moderate presidential debates. Russert was the first broadcaster ever inducted into the Gridiron Club, which had previously been restricted to print journalists. This year, Time magazine named him one of the world’s 100 most influential people.

As an aspiring journalist myself, I always admired the way Russert handled himself on set. He was intelligent, well-spoken, and conveyed what I will always believe was a genuine enthusiasm about politics to his audience. I was always impressed by the way he handled himself during interviews and debates. As Yahoo News puts it, Russert “pointedly but politely questioned hundreds of the powerful and influential.” He was a great journalist, one who questioned politicians on the issues, keeping the discussions both civil and focused. He certainly will go down as one of my favorite journalists and will always serve as a personal role model. Journalists, viewers, and admirers from around the world, myself included, will miss him deeply.

Obama Wins North Carolina!

By Jonah Rosenblum

CNN has already projected that North Carolina will be won by Senator Barack Obama. Using exit polls posted on the CNN website, I predict that Obama will win by approximately 5 percentage points.

We will have much more coverage later, using the exit polls to analyze what was going through the minds of voters in Indiana and North Carolina. For now though, it looks like a true split decision. Senators Clinton and Obama look like they will each win a state by approximately 5 points. However, in the larger scheme of things, Senator Obama should add to his delegate lead tonight, since North Carolina has more delegates than Indiana.

Clinton Wins Indiana!

By Jonah Rosenblum

Using exit polls from the CNN website, I am projecting Senator Hillary Clinton as the winner in Indiana. According to the Indiana exit polls, Hillary won amongst male voters (who made up 45% of those polled) by a margin of 51% – 49%, and won amongst female voters (55% of those polled) by a margin of 53% – 47%. Thus, it seems safe to project Senator Clinton as the winner. She will presumably end up winning by 3 – 5 percentage points.

We will be analyzing the exit polls more at a later date, but it is already significant to note that there didn’t seem to be much of a difference between the way men voted and the way women voted.

Clinton and Obama Hit Up the Hoosier State

72 delegates. A state where both candidates figured to have a decent shot. Obama had hoped to capitalize on its proximity to Illinois. Part of Indiana is within Chicago’s media market, which figured to be a big plus for the Illinois senator. In addition, the state is wealthier than Pennsylvania and Ohio, which is crucial considering how poorer voters have trended towards Clinton of late. On the other hand, white people make up over 88% of the state’s population, which is well above average, and which figures to favor Senator Clinton. So, where will Indiana go? Will it act like it’s neighbor to the West (Illinois) and vote Obama, or would it vote like its Eastern neighbor (Ohio) and go for Clinton?

The polls right now indicate that Indiana’s large white population should hand the state to Clinton. On average, polls indicate that Clinton is leading there by about approximately 5 points.

In short, the Hoosier state should end up in the Clinton category. Delegate-wise though, the North Carolina and Indiana primaries might have very little impact, since the two look like they will cancel each other out.

Democrats Go Down South…To North Carolina

115 delegates at stake. The race is tightening. Yet, demographics wise, Barack Obama is still the favorite to win in North Carolina. In the Tar Heel State, Senator Obama benefits from an abnormally large African-American population (21.7% of the state’s total population) He also is fortunate that North Carolina’s senior population is nowhere near what it was in Pennsylvania (Clinton wins overwhelmingly among senior voters) and the fact that its Hispanic population is fairly low, certainly nothing like what Obama faced in Texas. North Carolina is a somewhat poorer state than average, and also has fewer college graduates than the average state, which helps Clinton somewhat, but overall Obama has the advantage.

Polling confirms this advantage. Recent polls show that Obama is ahead by approximately 7 percentage points in North Carolina. One Rasmussen poll conducted over the weekend predicts a 9 point victory for the Illinois senator.

In short, North Carolina should swing to Obama by a small yet comfortable margin.